Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.505309 38.484462 41.738987 45.584915 50.040844 55.085422 61.293169
2025-03-30 30.958599 34.890669 39.479513 45.324363 52.715353 61.964685 74.790496
2025-04-06 28.025733 32.361820 37.639555 44.706437 54.209589 67.028316 86.607276
2025-04-13 25.522374 29.958740 35.516550 43.226323 54.072967 69.572837 95.196511
2025-04-20 24.618592 29.412717 35.610561 44.555508 57.815799 78.135676 115.338144
2025-04-27 23.788384 28.850370 35.573905 45.623068 61.250366 86.855595 138.932855
2025-05-04 22.938889 28.170636 35.280062 46.231979 64.004745 94.998283 165.032306
2025-05-11 21.905283 27.153005 34.407311 45.843649 65.033851 100.244520 187.463450
2025-05-18 20.918900 26.130615 33.438521 45.186406 65.476531 104.430825 209.698358
2025-05-25 19.965065 25.095055 32.372335 44.260847 65.297597 107.297959 230.205094
2025-06-01 19.112618 24.156754 31.386659 43.370361 65.051265 109.958837 252.168733
2025-06-08 18.251306 23.163578 30.259317 42.150448 64.032982 110.683530 268.335597
2025-06-15 18.062844 23.159952 30.666370 43.599239 68.465510 125.717908 359.506340
2025-06-22 17.481193 22.549801 30.100475 43.329048 69.462719 132.695914 428.680372
2025-06-29 16.880300 21.880781 29.399550 42.753752 69.737289 137.868472 500.438622
2025-07-06 16.152753 20.990581 28.300076 41.376080 68.115435 137.208030 533.379281
2025-07-13 16.021194 20.993145 28.626479 42.613344 72.403475 155.907400 801.204122
2025-07-20 15.844732 20.915896 28.814059 43.605889 76.332898 175.748044 1288.706910
2025-07-27 15.596907 20.715020 28.782091 44.171544 79.360127 194.369241 2206.135796
2025-08-03 15.198101 20.260873 28.299416 43.810840 80.022920 204.212371 3416.136349
2025-08-10 14.779426 19.760121 27.713751 43.200038 79.956814 211.091580 5385.912807
2025-08-17 14.341173 19.214014 27.027343 42.339203 79.121325 214.253853 8297.897127
2025-08-24 13.930900 18.700139 26.376368 41.510237 78.276097 217.185269 14547.082965